Getting in Touch to Stop an Epidemic

Using Tangible Landscape to control Sudden Oak Death

On the West Coast of the U.S., a forest disease called sudden oak death is spreading, and land managers are on a mission to contain it. Forestry and Environmental Resources Ph.D. student Devon Gaydos and her team of collaborators are now using geospatial analytics to help those managers predict where the disease is likely to spread and which interventions might be most effective.

“We’ve been developing an interactive disease simulation model that allows stakeholders to test different management scenarios,” Devon says. “Until now, it’s mainly been used as a research tool, but this modeling framework has the potential to facilitate discussions between different stakeholder groups and to inform solutions for real-world landscape-scale problems.”

Advised by Ross Meentemeyer, director of the Center for Geospatial Analytics and professor in the College of Natural Resources, Devon is working with other students in the center to engage West Coast stakeholders in decision-making through Tangible Landscape––a system that weaves interactive simulations with a user-friendly interface that is responsive to touch.

A proof of concept published last March showed how center researchers were able to use Tangible Landscape to effectively roleplay sudden oak death management on a modeled landscape of California’s Sonoma Valley. Last month, Devon and her team debuted the model for use outside of the lab, flying to Curry County, Oregon, to conduct an on-site workshop with a group of stakeholders highly invested in sudden oak death management in the region. The group included foresters, forest pathologists and epidemiologists from the Oregon Department of Forestry, Oregon State University and U.S. Forest Service.

At the workshop, the dozen attendees gathered around a card-table-sized model representing a 12-km by 8-km area of land within Oregon’s sudden oak death quarantine zone. They were then challenged to select areas for management—that is, removal of host trees—to curtail spread as much as possible within a five-year timeframe, with varying levels of potential funding. Particularly important was protection of nearby Coos County, where a future quarantine could restrict export of timber, fruits and cultivated plants from a major international port. An online dashboard kept track of each player’s choices in this serious game and encouraged discussion among all the players.

As participants experimented with the model, they had room to be creative. One player arranged management on the landscape in a way that was “nothing we’d thought of before,” Devon says. Attendees provided helpful feedback for model improvement as well as reported how the system could be useful in their own work: from identifying where to conduct aerial surveys for dead trees, to determining funding needs and educating regional landowners.

“Our main goal was to demonstrate the model and get feedback from everyone,” Devon says. “That feedback is going to be used to improve the model so that we can use it in the future with other stakeholders and in different locations.” For example, Devon plans to return to Oregon to conduct another workshop next summer, this time with timber companies, private citizens and federal and state landowners.

“Engaging stakeholders with Tangible Landscape makes it possible to put sophisticated models at everyone’s fingertips without a steep learning curve, because hands-on interaction is very intuitive,” Meentemeyer says. “This is a game changer. And we could do so much more. We’re only scratching the surface.” Involving stakeholders in research and collaborative decision-making is a hallmark approach at the Center for Geospatial Analytics, and Meentemeyer welcomes additional partnerships. “When students and other researchers from the College of Natural Resources and beyond partner with the center, we’re able to accomplish things that no one ever dreamed of.”

The Hard Realities of Controlling an Epidemic

Sudden Oak Death landscape

post by jbvogler

New research on sudden oak death disease published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Ross Meentemeyer and colleagues from Cambridge and UC Davis models disease transmission in California forests and addresses the human, financial and political realities of controlling the SOD epidemic in the region.

Read the full story in NC State News article, “A Post Mortem on Sudden Oak Death” posted May 19.

This research has also captured the attention of reporters from The Washington Post and Los Angeles Times.  Take a moment to read what NC State News and outlets from DC to LA are saying about this collaborative work.

Cunniffe, N.J., Cobb, R.C., Meentemeyer, R.K., Rizzo, D., and Gilligan, C.A. (2016). Modeling when, where and how to manage a forest epidemic: sudden oak death in CaliforniaProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Citizen Science Helps Predict Risk Of Emerging Infectious Disease

citizen scientists

post by jbvogler

Citizen science with volunteered geographic information is playing a critical role in tracking and predicting the spread of Sudden Oak Death (SOD) disease according to new research published by Center researchers Ross K. Meentemeyer, Monica A. Dorning, and John B. Vogler and their UC Berkeley colleagues Doug Schmidt and Matteo Garbelotto.  SOD, caused by the generalist, invasive pathogen Phytophtora ramorum, has killed millions of oak and tanoak trees across coastal California and Oregon. Since 2008, the citizen science program called “SOD Blitz” has engaged, educated and trained over 1,600 volunteers to detect and locate the pathogen during peak windows of seasonal disease expression. These data have been used to generate increasingly accurate predictive maps of high risk areas that inform stakeholders where they should prioritize disease management efforts. The results, published in the May issue of the journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, demonstrate the meaningful contributions that citizen scientists can make to large-scale, long-term monitoring and spatial prediction of emerging infectious plant diseases. Related press and the journal article citation and abstract follow.

 

Press:

– Trees turned to snags: “Sudden Oak Death” fells California oaks in their prime [National Science Foundation | May 1, 2015]

– Sudden Oak Death Path Predicted By Citizen Scientists [Science 2.0 | May 1, 2015]

– Citizen Science Helps Predict Risk of Emerging Infectious Disease [HealthNewsDigest.com | May 1, 2015]

 

Citation: Ross K Meentemeyer, Monica A Dorning, John B Vogler, Douglas Schmidt, and Matteo Garbelotto 2015. Citizen science helps predict risk of emerging infectious disease. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 13(4): 189–194. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/140299

Abstract: Engaging citizen scientists is becoming an increasingly popular technique for collecting large amounts of ecological data while also creating an avenue for outreach and public support for research. Here we describe a unique study, in which citizen scientists played a key role in the spatial prediction of an emerging infectious disease. The yearly citizen-science program called “Sudden Oak Death (SOD) Blitz” engages and educates volunteers in detecting the causal pathogen during peak windows of seasonal disease expression. We used these data – many of which were collected from under-sampled urban ecosystems – to develop predictive maps of disease risk and to inform stakeholders on where they should prioritize management efforts. We found that continuing the SOD Blitz program over 6 consecutive years improved our understanding of disease dynamics and increased the accuracy of our predictive models. We also found that self-identified non-professionals were just as capable of detecting the disease as were professionals. Our results indicate that using long-term citizen-science data to predict the risk of emerging infectious plant diseases in urban ecosystems holds substantial promise.