Publications

@article{Serra-Diaz2016,
title = {California forests show early indications of both range shifts and local persistence under climate change},
author = {Josep M. Serra-Diaz and Janet Franklin and Whalen W. Dillon and Alexandra D. Syphard and Frank W. Davis and Ross K. Meentemeyer},
url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.12396/epdf},
doi = {10.1111/geb.12396},
year = {2016},
date = {2016-02-01},
journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},
volume = {25},
number = {2},
pages = {164-175},
abstract = {Aim: Forest regeneration data provide an early signal of the persistence and migration of tree species, so we investigated whether species shifts due to climate change exhibit a common signal of response or whether changes vary by species.Location California Floristic Province, United States; mediterranean biome. Methods: We related Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data from 2000−07 for 13 tree species to high-resolution climate and geographical data. Using methods from invasion ecology, we derived indices of species-specific regeneration overlap and central tendency change (range-wide global indicators) based on kernel density estimation of presence and absence of regeneration. We then built regeneration surfaces to identify areas of occurrence of high regeneration (regeneration hotspots, local indicators) in both geographical and climate space for 13 common tree species. Results: Differences between presence and absence of regeneration in forests varied in magnitude across species, with little evidence that tree regeneration is shifting to higher latitudes and elevations, the expected geographical fingerprint ofclimate change. We also identified potential topographic mediators of regeneration dynamics. Multiple regeneration hotspots were found for many species, suggesting the influence of non-climatic factors on regeneration. Differences between the presence and absence of regeneration in geographic and climate spaces were not always congruent, suggesting that shifting climate space and range area are not entirely coupled. Main conclusions: The distributions of regeneration in Californian forests show diverse signals, not always tracking the higher latitudinal–elevation fingerprint of climate change. Local regeneration hotspots are common in our analysis, suggesting spatially varying persistence of forest linked to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Our results emphasize that projections of tree range shifts in the context of climate change should consider the variation of regeneration drivers within species ranges, beyond the overall climate signal.},
keywords = {California Floristic Provence, climate change, early indicators, Forest Inventory and Analysis, forests, niche overlap, range dynamics, range shift, regeneration niche},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}

@article{Cobb2013,
title = {Biodiversity Conservation in the Face of Dramatic Forest Disease: An Integrated Conservation Strategy for Tanoak (Notholithocarpus densiflorus) Threatened by Sudden Oak Death},
author = {Richard C. Cobb and David M. Rizzo and Katherine J. Hayden and Matteo Garbelotto and Joao Filipe and Christopher A. Gilligan and Whalen W. Dillon and Ross K. Meentemeyer and Yana S. Valachovic and Ellen Goheen and Tedmund J. Swiecki and Everett M. Hansen and Susan J. Frankel},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3120/0024-9637-60.2.151},
doi = {10.3120/0024-9637-60.2.151},
year = {2013},
date = {2013-04-01},
journal = {Madrono},
volume = {60},
number = {2},
pages = {151-164},
abstract = {Non-native diseases of dominant tree species have diminished North American forest biodiversity, structure, and ecosystem function over the last 150 years. Since the mid-1990s, coastal California forests have suffered extensive decline of the endemic overstory tree tanoak, Notholithocarpus densiflorus (Hook. & Arn.) Manos, Cannon & S. H. Oh (Fagaceae), following the emergence of the exotic pathogen Phythophthora ramorum and the resulting disease sudden oak death. There are two central challenges to protecting tanoak: 1) the pathogen P. ramorum has multiple pathways of spread and is thus very difficult to eradicate, and 2) the low economic valuation of tanoak obscures the cultural and ecological importance of this species. However, both modeling and field studies have shown that pathogen-centric management and host-centric preventative treatments are effective methods to reduce rates of spread, local pathogen prevalence, and to increase protection of individual trees. These management strategies are not mutually exclusive, but we lack precise understanding of the timing and extent to apply each strategy in order to minimize disease and the subsequent accumulation of fuels, loss of obligate flora and fauna, or destruction of culturally important stands. Recent work identifying heritable disease resistance traits, ameliorative treatments that reduce pathogen populations, and silvicultural treatments that shift stand composition hold promise for increasing the resiliency of tanoak populations. We suggest distinct strategies for pathogen invaded and uninvaded areas, place these in the context of local management goals, and suggest a management strategy and associated research priorities to retain the biodiversity and cultural values associated with tanoak.},
keywords = {California Floristic Provence, disease ecology, genetic diversity, pathogen management, pathogen-caused extinction, Phytophthora ramorum, restoration, tanoak population decline},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}